-By Michael Parent

To borrow a term from Wall Street, is the advertising community about to feel the impact of "the triple witching hour" for network television?

Much has been written about the "perfect storm" that is speeding up the alleged demise of the Big Four broadcast networks: declining ratings caused by a combination of fragmentation, technology and, delivering the final blow, the writers' strike. With season-to-date prime-time live program ratings down 10 percent-12 percent and an additional 10 percent-12 percent lost with the conversion to C3, the last thing the networks and advertisers needed was for the writers to walk out.

We're in the business of delivering impactful, high-profile schedules to our clients, but it's becoming more difficult each year. No wonder the marketplace is the worst in most people's memories. Prime time lost upwards of 24 percent of its inventory this season. What business can survive that kind of loss? Luckily for the networks, demand has not slackened because advertisers still need their gross ratings points to successfully launch new campaigns. And with fewer and fewer high-profile events, demand for those events continues to skyrocket. When was the last time the Super Bowl essentially sold out before the holidays?

Fragmentation has continued since the advent of cable and will ultimately be another nail in broadcast's coffin, although it won't happen tomorrow or next year. Cable has already exceeded broadcast share and has a growing plethora of critically acclaimed dramas. Every year cable encroaches on the Emmy Award count. We've entered a time when most people, especially the young, no longer know or care about the difference between a broadcast and cable network. Perhaps there is a real benefit from purchasing TV using the Long Tail theory. You may lose the high-profile events, but you pick up the highly engaged viewer during an aperture moment when they are less likely to change the channel.

In a desperation move, we now see proven cable programs moving to broadcast. The strike has only encouraged viewers to leave prime time in larger numbers. Will they come back? Some undoubtedly won't, but most will come back to their favorites--Desperate Housewives, Grey's Anatomy, CSI, The Office. But there are so many marginal programs that the networks can barely justify bringing back next season. You can't cancel three-quarters of your schedule. The lowest common denominator shows that the broadcast networks are putting on air--mind-numbing game shows, agonizing clip shows, semi-scripted "reality"--are an embarrassment to these once-proud companies.

The jury is still out on the impact the strike had upon prime-time ratings. But the early numbers point toward a lesser effect than we would have imagined. Although numbers are still being analyzed, it looks like the net impact will be an additional loss of only approximately 5 percent. The networks did a decent job of filling the holes with midseason replacements, as well as reality programs and game shows. And of course, there's the "Idol effect."

But what does this all mean for broadcast prime time? It's actually a bit disturbing. Viewers were already leaving in larger numbers before the strike. Outside of American Idol, the NFL postseason and a couple of award shows, there are almost no "events" anymore. There are mini-events like Oprah specials, Lost premieres and 24 finales, but gone are the days when you could come into the office in the morning and everyone had watched that special/premiere/finale the night before. Now you're lucky if you can find two or three people who watched it--if you wait a few days, a few more people will have viewed via their DVRs.

Yet, every year overall TV viewership rises. With the advent of big, beautiful high-def TVs, people are watching more than ever before. And yes, the DVR is one of the causes. Viewers can now keep up with all the episodes they would have missed in the past. If you don't have a DVR or forgot to record it, just go online and watch it. And you'll only have to sit through a few commercials. Now if I could only get that abc.com digital player hooked up to my TV.

The old viewership patterns are out the window. Technology is making it easier to watch TV on our own time. Television is the greatest entertainment vehicle ever invented, and it has entered its second "golden age." Broadcast TV is here to stay. As advertisers, we want big event television--every night. We want the public to be excited for that big event show, to be engaged in the commercials, gossiping at the office watercooler the next morning and even blogging about it.

The "witching hour" will come and go, and the networks will still be standing, waiting to take our orders. Just as marketers adjusted to the higher CPMs incurred when people meters "lowered" ratings in 1987, they will adjust to lower commercial ratings. The challenge for advertisers is figuring out the right mix of elements to advertise in and keeping the viewer engaged with their brands.

Michael Parent is vp, associate director of national broadcast at TargetCast tcm, an independently owned media agency. He can be reached at mparent@targetcast.com.