-By Sean Cunningham

When a large group of economists agree strongly on anything relating to the U.S. economy, most of us take notice. By late April, more than 30 leading U.S. economists had stated publicly what we've all known for months. The U.S. economy is now in recession.

Despite the textbook definition of recession not technically being met (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth), most acknowledge that every key indicator of the domestic economy's strength has shown weakness.

Given this realization, let's also acknowledge that the savviest advertisers have got a playbook for creating competitive advantage during a downturn. This collection of best practices is from those marketers who emerged from recent recessions (2001, 1991 and 1989) on firm footing with their customer base and in a position to write growth back into their sales goals when the clouds had lifted.

Four studies (Harvard Business Review, McKinsey, Financial World and McGraw Hill) have analyzed the business and marketing practices of U.S. companies during economic recessions. Each showed the importance of maintaining and, if possible, growing marketing throughout these periods to generate competitive advantage over those that reduce ad spend. Other insights gleaned:

* Growing ad spend produced better category performance postrecession than those categories that saw reduced ad spend during a recession;
* Stronger, more established brands benefited the most from increased ad spend during economic slowdown;
* Brands with the largest share of voice that stayed committed gained the most during these recessions;
* Though consumers modify their spending behaviors during recessions, actual spending patterns reveal a case of "spend different" rather than "spend less";
* Not all advertising media are affected equally--media deemed "Primary" or "Last to Cut" tended to be television and, more recently, the Internet;
* Despite the attention recessions receive, their duration as economic events and as factors in consumer behavior are relatively short.

These all bolster the argument of staying the course during difficult economic times.

Continuing the rate/pace of advertising media investments and emerging in a strong position is a better long-term strategy than a deep short-term reduction that could have negative implication for the brand. Additionally, the cost of "buying back" or recovering share of voice postrecession will likely be considerably more expensive than simply staying the course.

Interestingly, agreement with the economists' predictions of a "short and shallow" recession is coming from the front lines--retail businesses that were hit early and hard by this turndown.

We recently concluded an April survey of more than 300 retailers including automotive, home improvement, apparel, banking and furniture retailers, etc. We found that 50 percent anticipated their business to improve during the remainder of 2008. Another 30 percent anticipated no further decrease in business. More encouraging is the fact that while '08 has been especially tough on these retail sectors, more than 75 percent of respondents reported an increase or flat ad spending for the rest of the year. We also queried which media would be the most likely to receive 2008 ad spend. Cable TV and the Web topped the list.

Spending Different in a Recession

We've already seen anecdotal evidence of consumer behavior of "spending different" while talking of "spending less" occurring. The automotive category provided an example: An early May Gallup poll had consumers reporting that rising fuel costs dictated their mind-set and behavior resulting in reduced travel and household spending, all in the name of spending less during a recession. However, the reality of April auto sales shows consumers still spending in a recession but spending differently. For the first time in history, 20 percent of all April vehicles sold in the U.S. were either a compact or a subcompact car. In short, a handful of vehicles that average more than 35 miles per gallon saw major boosts in sales. This trend of consumers spending differently pushed April 2008 U.S. car sales up 5.2 percent over April 2007 sales. The bad news in April was that sales of popular and highly profitable larger vehicles (SUVs and light-duty trucks) were down from '07. Even with the record surge in more fuel-efficient cars, the industry netted out with April '08 U.S. sales being 7 percent below 2007.

So which piece of recessionary sales news does the advertiser respond to? The surge in car sales or the reduction in SUVs and trucks? The answer from the advertiser's playbook is simple. Respond to both.

The first tab of the virtual recession playbook marked "best results" does not start with a closer watch of GDP, CPI and credit derivatives. Rather, it dictates a closer study of what advertisers understand best: changes in consumer behavior and meeting those needs. This will require consistent spending to deliver more information and impetus when your consumer's spending is different than before.

The one thing we should all agree on: This is the exact wrong time to dial down advertising spending.   

Sean Cunningham is president/CEO of the Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau. He can be reached at sean@cabletvadbureau.com.